After two years of experiencing cumulative losses, the global real estate market saw a positive shift in the second quarter of 2024, indicating the beginning of a potential recovery. This upswing follows a period of soaring values, driven by low interest rates, with global total returns reaching 5.0% in the fourth quarter of 2021 and 17.8% in the first quarter of 2022, both well above long-term averages.
However, the tightening cycle that followed caused a reversal of these gains, bringing values back to 2018 levels worldwide. Now, with the real estate market correction almost complete, it presents an opportune time for investors to consider this asset class. Not only does real estate historically provide stable income returns and diversification in a portfolio, but it also has the potential for robust returns during recovery periods. For instance, after the early 1990s recession, investors saw a 76% cumulative return over the next five years. Similarly, following the tech-wreck and the Global Financial Crisis, the five-year cumulative total returns were 98% and 86%, respectively.
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In the second quarter of 2024, global real estate values saw a moderation in losses, at just 0.74%, the lowest quarterly adjustment in the past two years. With offsetting income returns of 1.07%, global real estate achieved a positive 0.33% return, marking the first positive quarter since the second quarter of 2022. Among the 15 markets in the MSCI Global Property Index, a majority saw write-ups in real estate values for the first time since the second quarter of 2022. Eight markets, including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Southern Europe, the Nordics, the Netherlands, France, and the UK, experienced value increases from the previous quarter. Six markets saw value losses between 0.3% and 1.5%, all showing improvement from the first quarter of 2024. Only Australia recorded a larger write-down in the second quarter than in the first, with a 4.2% correction aligning valuations more closely with its peers.
However, changes in capital values are just one component of real estate returns. Historically, the larger component of total returns has been income. This trend highlights the importance of considering income returns in the overall performance of the real estate sector and reminds investors to evaluate both capital and income aspects when considering real estate investments.
In the second quarter, total returns, which combine capital and income returns, were positive in 12 of the 15 countries in the MSCI Global Property Index. The United States showed flat total returns of -0.09%, while Ireland saw slight negative returns of -0.22%, and Australia saw significantly negative returns of -3.07%. However, preliminary NCREIF ODCE index data showed US total returns turning positive at 0.25%. With values beginning to rebound, we expect the positive trajectory in total returns to continue.
Looking at the Asia Pacific region, we see potential challenges in fundraising for real estate investment in China and Japan. In the third quarter of 2024, these two countries accounted for 27% and 15% of the US $7.5 billion in cross-border inflows in the region. While over half of Japan’s inflows came from global sources, the majority of China’s came from within Asia Pacific, particularly Hong Kong and Singapore. However, both countries face high debt costs and other factors that could hinder a strong rebound in real estate capital inflows.
China is facing a property crisis, exacerbated by the collapse of Evergrande since 2021. This has led to stagnant market conditions, with risks such as price dislocation, geopolitical tensions, and lack of liquidity. As a result, many European investors are avoiding China and Hong Kong, despite potential returns. Additionally, China’s domestic property market continues to struggle, with high office vacancies, low rental yields, ongoing issues with failing developers, and government interventions.
Meanwhile, Japan remains an outlier in terms of interest rate policies. While major markets such as the US have cut interest rates to boost property investment, Japan’s rates have remained high. This has reduced the attractiveness of the broader Japanese property sector, preventing cap rate compression and resulting in stagnant property prices. As a result, real estate holders are relying on historically low-income yields. However, the senior housing sector remains an attractive niche due to Japan’s aging population, with 29% aged 65 or over. These assets are small and require amalgamation plays from investors.
On the other hand, Australia’s purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) market shows significant potential due to a housing shortage for students. Only 20% of students in Melbourne and Sydney can be accommodated by universities, forcing the rest to seek private rentals. Additionally, real estate debt in Australia offers appealing risk-adjusted returns, with funding gaps in construction, making it challenging for developers to secure bank financing. Sectors such as logistics or PBSA present long-term growth opportunities.
Overall, global real estate values and transaction market pricing suggest that the market is near its bottom, but this alone does not indicate an attractive entry point. For market pricing and valuations to increase, we ideally need to see declining interest rates and strengthening property fundamentals. Most developed market central banks are beginning to taper rates, which should put downward pressure on financing rates, discount rates, and property capitalization rates, boosting the value of real estate assets. Additionally, a pullback in construction activity across sectors presents a positive outlook for property fundamentals in the medium term. With supply headwinds waning, markets with positive demand due to population growth or structural changes, such as e-commerce, will likely see increased occupancies in the medium term. Historically, occupancies and rent growth are well-correlated, providing investors with opportunities to benefit from increased occupancies, rents, and the associated rise in property values.
While there may be challenges ahead, we believe that the global private real estate market is showing signs of improvement, making it an attractive investment opportunity. However, it’s important for investors to conduct thorough research and be selective when considering real estate investments, as not all markets and property types will perform equally well. In an uncertain economic and geopolitical environment, additional risks are to be expected, but this applies to all asset classes. Over the past two years, the weight of real estate in investors’ portfolios has significantly decreased due to resetting real estate values and a record stock market. Today, investors may want to consider fresh allocations to the private real estate market to achieve a strategic weighting. Over the long term, private real estate offers low correlations to other asset classes, strong income returns, and a degree of inflation hedging. So, while there may be bumps in the road, we believe the market is on the upswing, presenting excellent investment opportunities for savvy investors.…